Tropical Stomr Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to make its way through the Caribbean Sea over the next few days, possibly arriving in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week as a hurricane.
It’s too early, however, to predict exactly where the storm will go.
“It’s so far out that it really is anybody’s guess,” said Don Harrigan, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “But some of the computer models keep it in the southern part of the Gulf,” potentially impacting Texas or Mexico.
Ernesto was moving quickly to the west near 22 mph Thursday and packing top sustained winds near 50 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was expected to move overnight near the Windward Islands and continue heading west away from land before reaching the western Caribbean perhaps Tuesday.
Ernesto, the season’s fifth named storm, is expected to reach hurricane strength perhaps by Monday afternoon, the Hurricane Center said.
“It looks like an upper-level low will move out of the Gulf, and high pressure will build in, and that’s favorable for strengthening of tropical systems,” Harrigan said.
Ernesto formed as hurricane season is approaching its most active period, roughly from mid-August through September. So far this season, two tropical storms, Beryl and Debby, have made landfall in the U.S., with both hitting North Florida. That’s a change from last season, when 19 tropical storms formed but only one hurricane, Irene, made landfall in the U.S.
“Last year, there were many fronts that basically intercepted these hurricanes or tropical storms in the mid-Atlantic, and they would turn them north and they would ride up the frontal boundary,” said Peter Ray, professor of meteorology at Florida State University. “And this year, it’s my belief that those fronts are not as strong this far south and that the high pressure is centered farther west. And therefore, the storms are more likely to be able to reach the mainland.”
Ray doesn’t expect Ernesto to become a problem for Florida, saying it appears more likely at this point that it will head toward Texas or the Yucatan Peninsula or points farther south.
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